What if King Charles III took a DNA Test?

This was a question I've been thinking about lately and it led to some fascinating insights. Would you believe it if I told you Charles III had Moorish, Turkic, and Armenian ancestry? If you're only interested in the answer- skip to the 6th paragraph.

Some background: Obviously, we cannot know this answer for sure, but given how well documented royal bloodlines are, it is possible to estimate this. For example, if 6/16 of Charles' ancestors are English, he could be estimated to be 37.5% English genetically. Obviously, I wanted to go much further back than a few generations.

After some research, the only thing I could find was this report. It's interesting, showing that King Charles III is 58% Royal, 19% English, 8% German, 5% Hungarian, 4% Irish, 3% French, and 3% other. However, it's a bit oversimplified for two reasons. First, it only goes back 14 generations, which only covers back to the 1500s. There are a lot of changes that occurred before then that may affect the genetic makeup. For example with the Norman invasion in 1066, the French proportion is likely higher than 3%. The second key flaw in the methodology is the assertion of a "Royal" ethnic group that is completely genetically distinct from the rest of Europe. They are genetically distinct, but this group makes up 58% of Charles's ethnic makeup. Surely it is possible to break this group down further?

So I am conducting an analysis of my own. The methodology is a bit complicated, but if you're interested I could possible do another post. So far, I've gotten back 23 generations, to the 1100s, and plan on going back further in a future post. How is this possible? 2^23 is over 8 million ancestors. The key is royal inbreeding. Charles III is descended from George III in 4 ways; George III is descended from the House of Anhalt in many ways, and over the course of generations, the tree keeps folding and refolding until 23 generations earlier, when Charles is descended from Louis II, Duke of Bavaria in 10,000+ ways.

Here's a breakdown of my findings by country of origin:

Armenian: <.0001%: Armenians account for only 3/8,388,608 of the genome, but is interesting to note. It comes from the fact that Charles III is descended from one individual in 3 ways: Morphia of Melitene. She was ethnically Armenian and daughter of Gabriel, vassal of the Byzantine Empire in the modern day city of Malatya, Turkey. As a Christian, she married Baldwin of Bourcq, who was at the time Count of the Crusader State of Edessa and would become King of Jerusalem. Their children spoke French, and were ultimately married off to French families that existed after the fall of the crusader states. One of their descendants married King Bela III of Hungary, and they are ancestors of Charles III.

Moorish: .002%: This one is fascinating. All of it comes from one individual who Charles III is descended from in at least 127 ways: Madragana. There is some slight historical disagreement if she is of African origin or simply a Muslim from the Iberian peninsula, but her father was a Qadi (Islamic judge) in the Muslim-held city of Faro. She was a mistress to King Alfonso III of Portugal. Her son was a Portuguese nobleman who was an ancestor of both King George III and his wife Queen Charlotte.

Norwegian: .06% This may seem surprisingly low, considering the Norwegians have a history of invading Great Britain, including under Harold Hardrada, and this number may go up as I get further back in time. However, this is likely so low mostly because for much of the period I analyzed, Norway was ruled by either Danish or Swedish monarch, and as a result, English royals were not marrying Norwegian nobles as much as they were royals of Swedish or Danish descendent. Still, Charles III can trace his descent to King Haakon III of Norway in at least 29 ways.

Romanian: .06% Romania did not have an established monarchy until the 1300s, so this portion does not come from going way back, but can be found after going back only 13 generations through a Hungarian grandmother of Queen Mary of Teck. This can ultimately be traced back to Vlad II Dracul, father of Vlad the Impaler.

Turkic: .06% Here, by Turkic, I don't mean from the geographic region of present-day Turkey. Instead I mean Turkic peoples, any peoples speaking a Turkic language. The entirety of this portion comes from the Cumans. They are from the Russian steppe, and are not Muslim, but rather Tengrist (worshipping the sky god Tengri). Their language is most closely related to modern day Kazakh, Kyrgyz, and Tatar. For centuries they were at war with the Kievan Rus, but after the Mongols invaded much of their homeland, many fled to Hungary. They were led by Koten, who converted to Catholicism and allied with King Bela IV of Hungary. Koten's daughter Elizabeth was betrothed to King Bela's son Stephen, and their descendants became ancestors of many of the royal houses of Europe. Ultimately, Hungarian barons would become suspicious of Koten, accusing him of secretly cooperating with the Mongols and assassinating him. The Hungarians would then be defeated by the Mongols, but the Cuman/Turkic blood is still traceable to King Charles III.

Greek: .08% While Charles' father Philip is son of the Prince of Greece and Denmark, they have almost no native Greek blood. You need to go back 17 generations before you find a single ethnically Greek ancestor of King Charles III. This is likely because for most of this period, there were not natively Greek royal houses for Western European royals to intermarry with: Greece was controlled by the Ottoman Empire for most of this period. However, go back a few more generations and you'll find that many European ruling houses, especially Russian, Hungarian, and Italian ones, once intermarried with Byzantine ruling houses. Through these connections, Charles III can trace descent from the Palaiologan, Laskarid, Angelid, and Komnenid dynasties.

Welsh: .13% English and Scottish royal families often intermarried with Welsh families. Although Wales does not have as large a proportion as you might expect considering it makes up 4% of the population of Great Britain, some of Great Britain's most famous families, the de la Poles and Tudors, originate in Wales. In this total, Norman Marcher Lords such as the Talbots and Mortimers are not included. Still, Charles III can trace his lineage back to some of the most famous native Welsh figures, including Owain Glyndwr and Llewelyn the Great.

Southern Slavic: .21% In this category is most of the geographic area that encompassed Yugoslavia. Albania is also included. However, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and Poland are not. For most of the period tracked, this area was under the control of the Ottoman Empire and did not have royal families intermarrying with Western Europe. However, on occasion Italian and German lords did marry Southern Slavic families. One notable example is Barbara of Cilli, who was from Slovenia and became Holy Roman Empress, making her an ancestor of many European royals. Charles III can also trace his ancestry to pre-Ottoman Serbian monarchs such as Stephen the First-Crowned.

Portuguese: .25% Portugal and Great Britain have an alliance dating back to 1386, the oldest in the world still in force. However, for most of recent history, British monarchs have not married Portuguese ones because British monarchs have been Catholic and British ones have been Protestant. You have to go back 16 generations to find the first Portuguese ancestors. Prior to that, you'll find plenty of Portuguese queens marrying into German, Spanish, and even Danish royal families. There has not been a Portuguese Queen of England, but Edward III granddaughter Philippa of Lancaster did become Queen of Portugal. Through all this there are many connections for Charles III to Portuguese royals and he is descended from almost all Portuguese kings John I and before.

Scottish: .54% You may expect the Scottish heritage of King Charles III to be more prevalent. After all, he is the King of Great Britain, and descends from the Scottish House of Stuart, which ruled Great Britain 1604-1713. However, as you'll see, most of Charles the III's heritage comes from outside of Great Britain. Part of this does come from King James VI & I, Charles' ancestor and King of Scotland, but most actually comes from Charles' maternal grandmother, Elizabeth Bowes-Lyon whose father was Earl of Strathmore and Kinghorne, part of the peerage of Scotland.

Danish: .55% Go back five generations and you'll find that Charles III is 9.38% Danish. Not only is his father Philip son of the King of Greece and Denmark, he is descended from the 19th century Danish King Christian IX twice. Christian IX is often called the father-in-law of Europe, as four of his children were either a king or queen (Denmark, Greece, UK, and Russia). King Edward VII of Great Britain marrying Alexandra of Denmark is just one in a long history of British monarchs marrying consorts from the Danish royal family. Then why not more than half a percent? Mostly because many of the Danish monarchs themselves are not very ethnically Danish. The House of Oldenburg, descendants of which have ruled Denmark for hundreds of years, is of German origin. Unlike countries like France or Germany which have a fairly large class of native dukes, counts, and other nobles that kings intermarry with, Denmark is small enough where there are not near as many powerful families. As a result, Danish monarchs often married families from outside of Denmark.

Spanish: .68% Spanish is another ethnicity that you have to go back many generations to find because for most of recent history, the Spanish royal family has been Catholic, while the British royal family has been Protestant. However, go back beyond the 1500s, and you'll find Spanish families routinely intermarry with Portuguese, British, and French families. Kingdoms like Navarre, encompassed territory in both modern day France and modern day Spain. Charles III's most recent Spanish royal ancestor is Joanna the Mad of Castile, who married Philip I, Lord of the Netherlands. Her parents are Ferdinand and Isabella of Aragon and Castile, so Charles can trace his descent to both of these families, as well as kings of Navarre and Leon. There has even been a Spanish queen of England, with Edward I of England having married Eleanor of Castile.

Baltic: 1.46% Every section so far has added up to 2.62% of Charles III genome. It may come as a surprise then that Balts make up 1.46% of Charles' ancestors. Charles has many German ancestors, and many of them married Polish royals. Many of these Polish royals married individuals from Baltic states, mostly Lithuania, which was united with Poland in the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth for nearly 200 years. You'll find the first natively Baltic ancestors 15 generations back, with Wladyslaw Jagiello, a Lithuanian, born a pagan, who would come to rule Poland and Lithuania and form the Jagiellon dynasty. His ancestors, Gediminas and Algirdas, had many children that married into various European dynasties.

Russian: 1.51% Go back 3 generations, and you'll find that one of Charles III's great grandparents, Olga Constantinova, was from Russia. However, go back a few more generations, and you'll find that her family was largely of German descent (ever since Catherine the Great, Russian Tsars had large amounts of German ancestry). You have to go back further to find significant amounts of Russian ancestors. Far enough and you'll find that Russia, which is a large country with a large aristocracy, often married with German, Polish, Hungarian, and Scandinavian families, and so make up a significant portion of Charles' heritage. Charles is descended from most of the Russian Tsars Nicholas I and before.

Swedish: 1.52% Charles has far fewer Danish and Norwegian ancestors, so why so many Swedish? Swedish families frequently married into other European families, especially Northern German and Polish ones. Swedish monarchs also ruled over Denmark, Norway, and Finland for hundreds of years. Finally, until the 16th century, Sweden was ruled by an elected monarchy, which meant that one monarch was often unrelated (or distantly related) to the previous. Monarchs who accede to the throne as the first from their family often have more native blood than monarchs whose families have ruled a country for centuries because monarchs from established families often have more ancestors who married foreign spouses.

Czech: 1.99% British royals don't have a strong history of marrying Czechs, but German royals certainly do. Since Charles has a lot of German blood, this has a large impact. Of particular importance here is Charles IV, native Bohemian king who became Holy Roman Emperor in the 14th century. One his daughters, Anne, married King Richard II of England, but they have no living descendants. Charles IV did have 13 other children though, many of whom married into prominent families throughout Europe. This category includes individuals that are natively Czech, Bohemian, Slovak, or Moravian.

Irish: 2.30% This one is a bit hazy. For much of its recent history, Ireland was ruled by a noble class that was of English, Scottish, or Norman descent (ie de Burghs, Fitzgeralds, and Butlers), as opposed to native Irish families. However, these families, did sometimes intermarry with native Irish ones (such as the O'Neills, Mccarthys, and O'Briens). While it was fairly abnormal for continental European families to intermarry with Irish ones, English and Scottish families did this routinely. As a result, almost all of this portion comes from Charles' maternal grandmother Elizabeth Bowes-Lyon, who is of primarily English and Scottish ancestry. As far back as can be traced, about 8% of her ancestry was Irish. Conversely, her husband, King George VI, is just .04% Irish.

Dutch: 2.87% French, Dutch, and German families routinely intermarried in Northwestern Europe for most of history. The borders were not as clear as they are today, and there was so much intermarriage, it is a bit difficult to separate the three. In this context, Dutch includes individuals born in/ruling the modern days Netherlands or the Flemish region of Belgium. For most of history, there was no "King of the Netherlands", but powerful Dutch families are all over Charles' family tree. Not only are the houses of Nassau, Flanders, and Burgundy represented, but Dutch blood can be found even in Charles' predominantly British great-grandmother Lady Cecelia Cavendish-Bentinck, who is patrilineally descended from the Bentinck family, which came over with William III during the Glorious Revolution.

Polish: 2.93% This proportion is so high primarily because German families so frequently intermarried with Polish ones. This category not includes just Poles, but all Slavic peoples from modern day Germany or Poland. This includes groups like the Sorbs, Pomeranians, Oborites, and Veleti. Over generations, many of these ruling families were assimilated into the German aristocracy. Charles is descended from almost all of the Polish Piast monarchs.

Italian: 3.47% Charles can not trace descent from more recent and famous Italian noble families such as the Medicis, Borgias, and Sforzas. Similar to Spain and other Catholic countries, British monarchs did not marry Italian nobility in recent history. In addition, through much of its history, Italy has been ruled by non-native dynasties from France, Germany, and Spain. You have to go back a few generations before finding a significant amount of Italian heritage. Most of this comes from Southern German families marrying Italian ones, such as the Visconti family frequently intermarrying with the Duchy of Bavaria. While German, French, and British rulers routinely marry foreign wives, Italian rulers seem to do this less often. As a result, Italian nobles tended to me more native to their home countries than nobles of other countries. Through these nobles, Charles can trace his descent from every corner of Italy, from Milan, to Sicily, to the Judge Kings of Sardinia.

Hungarian: 5.09% At the fourth highest proportion, Hungarian is possibly the largest surprise. Like many of the previous ethnicities, Germans frequently intermarried with Hungarians, but not more than they did with Poles. Most of this proportion comes from a grandmother of Queen Mary of Teck (so a great great great grandmother of Charles) who was almost of purely Hungarian ancestry. As a result, Charles' grandfather George VI was 13.02% Hungarian, which was second only to German in his ethnic makeup.

French: 9.51% Now getting into the three ethnicities that make up the lion's share of Charles' heritage; with one of the largest classes of nobles in Europe, French families intermarried everywhere- from Scotland to the Holy Land. Brittany, Navarre, Savoy, Normandy, and Burgundy were all powerful in their own right, and count as French. Therefore, this ethnicity also includes families from modern-day Switzerland and Belgium, as long as they are French speaking. This is likely an underestimate as many of the nobles living in England 23 generations ago were of predominately French heritage. Every generation further back, the percent French in the calculation goes up (for example, only 17 generations of analysis puts Charles as 7.60% French). Another contributing factor to this is French record keeping goes further back than many countries in Europe and French nobles were often the ones doing the conquering as opposed to being conquered by foreign families. Through all these trends, Charles can trace his heritage to almost all major Medieval French families and almost all monarchs Charles VII and before.

English: 20.63% The King of England is only 20.63% English. Is that more or less than you would expect? The reality is Charles is much less English than his mother Elizabeth (who was 40.86%) and much more than his grandfather George VI (who was .44%). Why is that? For one, Charles' father Philip, coming from a German family, has very little English heritage. Charles grandmother (and George VI's wife) Elizabeth Bowes-Lyon is responsible for almost all of Charles English heritage. She is descended from many English noble families. Through her, Charles is descended from many of England's most recognizable figures, from Elizabeth I's favorite Lettice Knollys, to the 3rd Duke of Norfolk (uncle to Anne Boleyn and Catherine Howard), to the 16th Earl Warwick ("Kingmaker" during the War of the Roses), to King Henry IV, who has no legitimate descendants to inherit the throne, but does have an illegitimate daughter who is an ancestor of Charles.

German: 44.10% As you may expect, Charles III is predominately German. Not only is his father Philip from the German house of Glucksburg, his mother is patrilineally descended the German house of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha. Many of Britain's recent monarchs have married consorts of predominately German descent. As a result, if you go back only 9 generations, you would find that 66.99% of Charles' ancestors were German! As you go further back, many of these German royals have French, Italian, Polish, and other blood, resulting in the proportion gradually going down the further back you get. However, between Germany, Austria, Switzerland, and parts of modern-day Poland and Italy, Germans make up the largest class of European nobles. Not only were they centrally located, but for most of history there was no "King" of Germany. Instead, there were smaller German houses: Wittelsbachs, Guelphs, Hohenzollerns, Habsburgs, Hohenstaufens, etc. which were valuable allies for European kings and queens from other countries. Charles is descended from each of these families, as well as many Holy Roman Emperors.

Conclusions: I hope you found this an interesting analysis of genealogy, monarchy, and European history- I certainly did. I want to push further back and analyze additional generations, ideally back to the centuries when records on Western European nobles were no longer kept. This is doable because the number of recorded nobles will decrease the further back I go, so expect that in the next few weeks. In analyzing thousands of individuals, I'm left with an interesting hypothesis- if all individuals were able to trace their heritage as far back as Charles, would it converge towards a representative sample representing the distribution of the population of the time?